General Election Forecast, UK 2010


As the polling stations open in under 12 hours time to allow voting in the UK General Election, I’ve decided to mention a couple of sites that have some interesting forecast stats. I’ve also decided to take the plunge make my own prediction for the results.

Electoral Calculus have stats based on robust survey volumes:

UK Polling Report provides a Swingometer map and stats on the previous election results, seat by seat. Their current map forecasts the Conservative Party will win the election by a margin of 60 Seats, but Electoral Calculus predicts a Conservative shortfall from a majority by 9 seats.

The House of Commons will have 650 seats, so 326 seats are required for a majority. 10 seats are expected to switch from Labour to The Conservatives, because of boundary changes since the last election in 2005.

My prediction:

Labour: 202 Seats
Liberal Democrats: 94 Seats
Conservative: 324 Seats
Others: 30

This would leave The Conservatives just short of a majority and faced with the prospect of forming a coalition Government.

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